Thursday, January 31, 2013

Chalk Up The "W": What Went Right And What Went Wrong For The Sabres


    Its been almost two years since the Sabres pulled out a victory vs Boston in T.D. Garden, but Thomas Vanek was a Bruin nightmare Thursday night in Buffalo's 7-4 win. He earned himself his eighth career hat trick and second 5 point game of the year.It was the third win of the year for the blue and gold and was the first loss in regulation by Boston this young season.
     Buffalo did what they planned to do. The signing of John Scott and Steve Ott was supposed bring grit and toughness to games such as Boston. John Scott dropped the gloves with the tough forward Shawn Thornton and if you watched the game you know who came out on top. It wasn't even a matchup for the 6'8 giant on skates. Thornton left the game after he was dropped to the ice from three solid punches by Scott.
    The main reason why Buffalo came out on top was because of their star forward Thomas Vanek. Vanek earned his eighth career hat trick. He opened the scoring 98 seconds into the second period receiving a beautiful pass from Cody Hodgson as he one timed a shot to the back of the net. Mid way through a two man advantage, Vanek deflected a pass from Christian Ehrhoff into the net. Ninety-three seconds later, Vanek was was flattened by Andrew Ference; even as Vanek was falling to the ice, he managed to make a stellar pass to an all alone Tyler Ennis to tie the game at three.
His third goal was a two on one break with Jason Pominville. It looked as if he was going to pass it off, but he held it long enough to make a video game like move on Tuukka Rask to give Buffalo the insurance goal they needed. Vanek who entered the game tied for sixth in scoring the league, now has 54 points in 46 career games against Boston.
     As for the goaltending, Ryan Miller had a shaky start to the game allowing three goals early in the second. He did recuperate in the third period. Miller made stop after stop on a powerplay that virtually saved the game for the Sabres, including robbing Zdeno Chara with his glove on a one timed shot. Miller stopped 38 of 42 shots which is pretty good in any standard.
    The defense, well where to start? It looked soft as always. It was a game for Tyler Myers and Jordan Leopold to forget. They were on the ice for all of Boston's goals, including Marchand dangling both of them to get an easy shot on Miller for their second goal. One advice for Coach Ruff to give them? USE THE BODY.
    Buffalo was in desperate need for this "W". They travel to Montreal to play the Canadiens on Saturday. If they keep putting the puck in the net like they did against a talented and tough Boston team their is no doubt they could climb the standings.  

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

What Needs To Change For The Sabres?

For those of you demanding change as the Sabres dropped their fourth game in a row, the obvious answer is clear--fire Lindy.  Let me stop by being realistic now and tell you that that is just not happening.

There is no doubt that changes need to be made and that the onus falls on the coach to put a winning team on the ice.  Lindy Ruff is just as responsible for the team's failure as he is for its success.

But if the coach isn't going anywhere, what can the team do to ensure improvement on the ice?

What the team can change is its philosophy.  The name of the coach is not going to change, but what needs to is his style.

Right now, Lindy Ruff is coaching scared.  In a tie game with under a minute to go in regulation, he sent out a line composed of Marcus Foligno, Jochen Hecht, and Matt Ellis.  Now normally I am all for playing for overtime, but the team had an offensive zone faceoff against a Leaf team they were able to maintain decent puck possession against all night.  Instead, he nailed one of the hottest lines in hockey to the bench and tied his rookie sensation's leash to a stake.

Ruff's handling of Grigorenko is a testament of its own to his non-aggressive coaching style.

It can be argued that Mikhail Grigorenko has been the best center for the Sabres thus far this season, yet Lindy has shown he still does not completely trust him.  Despite the fact that he was a -2 last night, the kid scored his first career NHL goal in a key moment and looked better than both Hodgson and Ennis.

Ruff's infatuation with sitting the talented center is beyond frustrating. Grigorenko made it this far due to his offensive abilities and skill. The maddening part of the situation is that Ruff continues to be afraid to use him in his proper role.

Any player can dump the puck in and chase after it, so why do you need to burn a year off your highly touted prospect's contract to do it?

Mikhail Grigorenko is here to provide offense and therefore should be playing offensively, as with the rest of the team

Lindy Ruff, and the team as a whole, need to comprehend the importance of every game in a season this short. The time to wake up is now.

It comes down to the desire to win.  Desperation and compete will drive this team to victory. The Sabres need to be playing desperate for points whistle to whistle from Game 1 all the way to Game 48.  And this sort of team attitude has yet to be seen like it has in past playoff runs.

It's time for the Sabres to, as they say, "play like you mean it."

Below I've posted new line suggestions that I think would bring out the best in each player:

26-19-29
63-25-21
82-9-42
36-55-32

10-52
3-57
24-6

PP1: 26-19-25, 29-10
PP2: 63-9-21, 3-57

Monday, January 28, 2013

Can Thomas Vanek Win The Rocket Richard?


Thomas Vanek became a star in Buffalo even before the Sabres selected him fifth overall in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft.  Just months prior, Vanek stole the show at the NCAA Frozen Four Tournament held in Buffalo that year leading his University of Minnesota team to its fifth national championship in school history and was ultimately crowned tournament MVP.

Vanek spent the first year of his entry-level contract riding out the 2004 lockout with the Rochester Americans where he notched 42 goals in 74 games.  The following year, he earned a spot on the Sabres opening night roster and played all but one game that season finishing with 25 goals.  Immediately, expectations were set high for the young Austrian winger.

But Vanek’s production fell off during the Sabres’ dramatic playoff run.  He only netted 2 goals in just 10 games and eventually found himself in the press box.  Vanek’s poor performance in the clutch created an army of doubters that have followed him ever since.

However, Thomas Vanek proved he excels at tuning out his critics.  He’s also proved he excels at one other thing--putting the puck in the net.

Among his many criticisms such as being “lazy” or “soft,” he is often scrutinized for being “inconsistent.”

Vanek’s  career high came in 2006 when he tallied 43 goals and his career worse (and I use that term loosely) came in his rookie year with 25.  His career goals per game is .42 which is close to almost a goal every 2.5 games.  Vanek has averaged 33 goals a season over his seven year career with a median goal total of 32.  The slim margin between his average and median goal totals shows that he has been fairly consistent when it comes to scoring.

Vanek has clearly demonstrated that he is good at scoring goals.  But the question is can he be the best at it?

Only two Sabres have ever led the league in goals since the franchise’s inception, Danny Gare (1979) and Alexander Mogilny (1992) with 56 and 76 respectively.  Both tied with someone else; Gare with Charlie Simmer and Mogilny with the Finnish rookie sensation Teemu Selanne.

Neither player was awarded the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy which first began being awarded to the NHL’s annual goal leader in 1998.

That being said, no Sabre has ever won the Rocket Richard.  Can Thomas Vanek be the first?

It’s safe to say that he has the closest shot out of anyone on the roster.  He has twice finished in the top-10 in goals.

He currently has three in just four games this season which is six off San Jose’s Patrick Marleau’s lead of nine.  However, Marleau has played two more games than Vanek and is scoring at a record-setting pace that can’t continue for an entire season (or should I say half season?).  As of now, Marleau is on pace for 86 goals and Vanek 36 goals, but realistically neither will amass those totals.

If Vanek is to match his career average in this shortened season, he would need to pot around 20 goals.  20 goals is certainly not out of the question for Vanek, especially if the superb play of the top line of Vanek, Hodgson, and Pominville continues when Vanek returns from injury.

Since the 2004 lockout (funny that I had to specify which lockout), the winner of the Richard Trophy has scored on average 55 goals.  In a 48 game season, that is equivalent to 32 goals.

I would guess that this year’s winner is going to need at least 30 goals to secure the title.

Does Vanek have ten extra goals in him this year?  Time will tell.

With the amount of talent that is embedded in the NHL’s  superstars, the odds are certainly stacked against Vanek to win the Rocket Richard.  But,  there’s a slight possibility we could see Vanek in Las Vegas at the NHL Awards Ceremony in June if he continues to dominate.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Sabres vs. Hurricanes Recap

     The Sabres Earned their first loss of the young season Thursday night to the Carolina Hurricanes. It looked as if Eric Staal saved his scoring for the Sabres by knocking in his first three goals of the season to earn his 13th career hat trick. Jeff Skinner added in two more to earn Carolina's first victory of the season.
     It was a 2-2 game in the second until it was short lived by Carolina. There was confusion from Cody Hodgson behind is own net as Jeff Skinner stole the puck and finished the wrap around before Jhonas Enroth could react.
     While the Raleigh crowd was roaring, Eric Staal found the net, as he beat Tyler Ennis off the face off and received a pass from defensemen Jamie McBain. Staal fought of the back-checking dive from Ennis  and slipped it under Enroths's pad for the goal.
      Six minutes into the third, Thomas Vanek continued his MVP caliber play by feeding a no-look back hand pass right on the tape of a thriving Jason Pominiville to put it past Cam Ward to bring Buffalo within one with 14:54 left in the third.
     Staal ended Buffalo’s hopes, scoring with 10:34 left and into an empty net with 1:28 to go to complete his hat trick. 
     Nathan Gerbe who was activated from injured reserve made a rough season debut . Mid way through he first period he dumped it into the Carolina zone only to be decked into the boarrds from behind by Drayson Bowman. He angrily joined a scrum after the hit to go after Bowman.
  The penalty to Bowman was the second of three first-period power plays for Buffalo. It failed to capitalize on any, totaling just two shots with the man advantage.
   Mikhail Grigorenko received extensive power-play time with the second unit, but the rookie’s main contribution was a giveaway in the slot when he decided not to shoot. It cost him as he played just two shifts in the second period.
   The teams move on to Buffalo on Friday night to complete a home-and-home series at First Niagra Center.
     

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Western Conference Playoff Predictions


1. Chicago
This team has 3 superstar forwards on their team in Toews, Hossa and Kane. As long as Crawford doesn’t play like he did in the playoffs, Chicago is the team to beat in the West.
MVP: Marian Hossa (If he stays healthy)

2. San Jose
Time is running out for San Jose to make a serious Stanley Cup run before their team gets blown up. They missed out on Rick Nash, but still have two high scoring top lines.
MVP: Patrick Marleau

3. Minnesota
The Wild add two superstars in the offseason in Parise and Suter. They already have Koivu, Heatley and Backstrom. If Granlund plays like a #2 center, this team will be tough to beat.
MVP: Zach Parise

4. St. Louis
If not for Los Angeles' Dominance in the playoffs last season, the Blues would have been in the Stanley Cup. This team is built for playoff hockey.
MVP: Alex Pietrangelo

5. Vancouver
It’s going to hurt the Canucks to not have Ryan Kesler. The Sedin’s aren’t getting younger, Luongo isn’t getting better, and Schneider is unproven.
MVP: Henrik & Daniel Sedin

6. Los Angeles
The dreaded Stanley Cup hangover and no Kopitar will get the Kings off to a slow start. In a 48 game season, that is going to cost the Kings.
MVP: Anze Kopitar

7. Detroit
An end of an era in the loss of Lidstrom, a void that cannot and will not be filled. The Wings will still make the playoffs, but they’re not the same team.
MVP: Pavel Datsyuk

8. Dallas
If Jagr and Whitney can give the Stars one good year, the Stars are a playoff team because of Kari Lehtonen. The longer Benn stays unsigned, the odds of making the playoffs for the Stars decrease.
MVP: Kari Lehtonen

Clarence Campbell Winner: St. Louis

Western Conference MVP: Zach Parise

Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions


Now that the 2012-2013 NHL lockout is over, we can get back to business. First up, we will do our yearly Eastern and Western Conference predictions.
The season will be a short one. Yes, we may even see unexpected teams make the playoffs where as they probably wouldn’t if this was a full season. So taking that into consideration this is how I expect the Eastern Conference to pan out before the playoffs.
1) New York Rangers
Rick Nash will become a game breaker once again, while he is paired with Brad Richards. Fact is that Rangers were winning without him and were very, very good. Nash gives them another explosive option and that scoring threat to help Gaborik that they desperately lacked.
2) Boston Bruins
Tim Thomas was the sole reason why the Bruins were knocked out of the playoffs last season. Tuukka Rask will be very good, he has no reason not to be. The team in front of him is almost identical to the one that won the cup.
3) Washington Capitals
Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom, that is all. This team will go as much as these guys will. I think Adam Oates is the right man for the job to jump-start the red machine.
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
Malkin and Crosby make everyone around them shine, including dusters and grocery stick players. The problem here is the back-end. Fleury is not the goalltender Pittsburgh is waiting for and the defense is not enough to win the division either.
5.) Buffalo Sabres  
 The Sabres can really flourish if Tyler Myers and Thomas Vanek return to form, if Cody Hodgson can develop as a true first-line performer and if Ryan Miller returns to being one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders.

6.) CarolinaHurricanes 

The Hurricanes reunited the Staal brothers, Eric and Jordan, to an already-solid bunch and added Alex Semin in free agency. The hope is that the enigmatic Russian Semin can thrive in Carolina and silence the character whispers that have been circulating throughout the league over the past few seasons.

7.) Philadelphia Flyers 

Bryzgalov is the main question. If he plays a bit better than he did last year, we are looking at a very scary team. It is crazy how in just one year we are questioning Bryzgalov’s goaltending instead of praising it, but that is how this story goes. He was awful iu the playoffs last year, but can be brilliant at times. That’s if he ever comes back from space.

8.) Ottawa Senators 

Spezza resurrected himself last season and rose back to that elite status. If he does not get hurt and stay healthy, he is deadly. If Craig Anderson can continue to have Ottawa’s faithful fall in love with his consistent play, we can count on this team being more than a playoff bubble team.


Thursday, January 17, 2013

What Needs To Click For Buffalo To Succeed?

     The Sabres will play a compacted schedule this year due to the lockout. They will play a total of 48 games in 97 days. They only recieve one 3 day break throughout the entire year which is March 13-15.
     All of the games are going to be inter-conference which means that they will not be going on long 7 game road trips this year. This brings up the discussion of how will they end up playing on home ice. The last two years Buffalo has been 40-42 at home with that including overtime losses. The Sabres are easily matched with the Bruins as the best team in the division. Thats why I believe they can be a top 5 team in the conference.
    It all comes down to the goaltending. Lindy Ruff has been known to wear out his starting goaltender by January, but now he has a backup goaltender that he can rely on in back to back games. With that being said Jhonas Enroth should be getting around 10-12 games this year while Ryan Miller can hold his crease for the 35 plus games.
     If April comes around and a playoff spot is not sealed up for the blue and gold we may have seen the last of the Ruff/Regier tandem.
    Whether you think they should of been fired a long time ago or not they shouldnt be going out in ugly fashion.
    The playing field has been  as even as its ever been in todays NHL. One thing for sure with the compacted schedule it should determine an outlook for Terry Pegula (owner) on the future of his franchise.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Why Mikhail Grigorenko Deserves a Spot.

     Just from looking at his highlights on youtube you know that Mikhail Grigorenko is going to be a rising star is the NHL. He stands 6'3 200 pounds. The Russian 18 year old looked awkward the first 10 minutes of his first practice as he introduced himself to his new teammates.
     You can always tell when there is going to be a gifted player. Just seeing Grigorenko skate in the first drill I knew that Buffalo had someone special. He looked as if he was a younger Jason Spezza. Making clear crisp passes along the center of the ice, while showing the hands of a veteran really put an awe look on the fans watching him skate.
     The question that fans are wondering is will he be on the team for the duration of the season or will Coach Ruff decide he is not ready to take on an NHL centre role?
     It certainly will not be a shock if Buffalo sent him back down to Quebec for his final year in juniors knowing the Sabres have a history of caution in these matters.
    It all comes down to whats best for Ruff's defensive system. they just signed Jochen Hecht to a one year contract for 1 million dollars. Hecht is a 35 year old signing that could help the team but he also represents as a failed investment because he isn't a premiere goal scorer  like Grigorenko.
     If a decision was made it would be smart for Buffalo to keep the 18 year old on the team while keeping Hecht centering he 4th line. It would bring fans by giving them what they want. Keeping Grigorenko on the team can nurture him in becoming a great centre by playing him with two proven veterans in Ville Leino and Steve Ott.
    Overall, why would Buffalo settle for average in Jochen Hecht when they can gamble on greatness in Mikhail Grigorenko.
    

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Offseason Outlook


     Lets look at some of their offseason moves for the Buffalo Sabres. They started out by signing John Scott to a 1 year deal. Next, was the trading of Derek Roy to the Dallas Stars for Center Steve Ott. Finally, was the two recent signings of Center Kevin Porter who was formely on the Colorado Avalanche and the resigning of a long time AHL all star of the Sabres Mark Mancari.
      Buffalo fans have become upset over these aquisitions and I cant agree with them anymore. According to last years statistics the Sabres were in the bottom Half in the NHL in goals for and in shots per game. So why is management singing players whose roles are about being tough and getting under the nerves of other teams. John Scott, yes he is an incredible fighter that can motivate a team and Steve Ott, well he is a solid third line player that can score but not consistently. The Sabres have plenty of grinders such as, Patrick Kaleta, Cody Mcormick, and Corey Tropp that are going to blossom into great instigaters. The signing of Mark Mancari makes no sense because in the NHL nowadays you need speed in which he does not have and Kevin Porter just cannot produce because according to last years stats he had 7 goals in 35 games.
      What is a great addition to the team is drafting Mikhail Grigorenko. The first-round draft pick did show a quick adjustment to North America last season with 85 points in 59 games playing in the QMJHL. Grigorenko is 6-foot-3 and plays like a big player. However, he has plenty of room to add bulk to his frame, which may be one of the main reasons the club will not rush him.
       Overall, with the young talent that Buffalo possess i do forsee the playoffs for them this year. i definetly think they are a top 5 team in the eastern conference if the play from the first and second line works as projected to.